TOWN OF CARY
STAFF REPORT

REVIEW: Staff has prepared the attached report which outlines a proposed approach to dealing with the complex issue of growth management in the Town of Cary. This proposal reviews and presents the following items:

1. The past year’s actions and initiatives focused on growth management;
2. An historical perspective regarding development of the Town of Cary Comprehensive Plan; and
3. Four (4) action steps that should be undertaken.

Essentially, staff recommends that we tie all other related activities together and that we: (1) continue with creation of a complete Comprehensive Plan by preparing the Growth Management Element of the Plan, (2) develop a computerized growth management system to model development impacts and assist with growth & development decisions, (3) acknowledge the regional implications of growth when conducting these other tasks and involve other units of government as appropriate; (4) make several other related changes; and (5) begin the process of appointing a Growth Management Advisory Committee.

Town of Cary
Department of Development Services
November 3, 1998
The Comprehensive Plan: A Growth Management Approach

The Past Year in Review: Response to Rapid Growth

Since the beginning of 1998, managing community growth has been the primary policy issue facing leaders in the Town of Cary. A brief summary of events during the past ten months shows some of the activities that have been undertaken in this regard:

• The 1998 Council/Staff Retreat focused on growth management. Nationally recognized experts in the field of growth management were invited to participate and discuss the wide variety of techniques that were available or used by other communities to manage growth.
• Town Council appointed a 21-member Growth Management Task Force (GMTF) in January. Several months later, after a great deal of discussion and work, the committee providing recommendations in five major topic areas: water, parks and recreation, education, transportation, and affordable housing. In mid-summer, staff provided a response to the report and identified efforts being taken to implement the committee’s recommendations.
• Several surveys and focus groups administered or sponsored by the Town have revealed strong citizen support for a more active program to manage the community’s growth. These included the Town’s Citizen Satisfaction survey, a mail-out survey conducted by the Growth Management Task Force, and the Cary Growth Strategies Project.
• Considerable debate has occurred on the subject of adequate public facilities (APF) ordinances for roads and schools. On July 23, 1998, the Town Council adopted an interim ordinance that requires the adequacy of roads to be addressed more effectively during the rezoning and development review processes. Consultants will be hired to draft a permanent APF ordinance. In the area of schools, a new liaison position has been included in the FY 1999 budget, and development of a schools adequacy ordinance is now being discussed.
• A residential building permit allocation system has been created to tie new development to the amount of available water and limit new residential construction until an expanded water treatment plant is completed in the year 2003.

Unfortunately, an overall growth management program has not been developed. These individual efforts have been disjointed and incremental, and a thorough understanding of the implications of various separate actions is not fully appreciated. Neither has the issue of regional coordination been effectively addressed.

Staff believes that these shortcomings can be overcome in a logical, methodical way through continued implementation of the Comprehensive Plan for the Town. Two key implementation tasks include preparation of the growth management element of the plan and creation of a computerized system to evaluate the impact of growth on public services and facilities.

Historical Context: The Comprehensive Plan

In November of 1996, Town Council adopted a new Growth Management Plan following an intense, two-year planning and citizen participation process. While referred to as the growth management plan, this plan should instead be viewed as the Land Use chapter or element of Cary’s Comprehensive Plan.

This land use element answers the question of "what" kind of development could occur in Cary. It is a "build-out" plan that identifies the ultimate geographic extent of the Town’s planning area, the desired future pattern of land uses, and an urban design vision. It does not, however, provide any indication of "when" development could or will occur.

Chapter 9 of the land use plan, Recommendations for Future Action, identified a series of other planning studies and activities that were necessary to fully implement the plan. These recommendations ranged from ordinance changes to development of additional plans to regional coordination.

Implementing a Complete Comprehensive Plan

Following plan adoption, staff was asked to develop a program to address these plan implementation steps. Consequently, at the 1997 Council/Staff Retreat (January 31 to February 2, 1997), staff presented a proposed program to continue development and implementation of a true Comprehensive Plan for the Town of Cary. The following graphic was used during the presentation to illustrate the various chapters or elements of such a Comprehensive Plan:

Components of a Comprehensive Plan

Introduction
Socioeconomic Trends & Forecasts
Goals & Objectives
Land Use and Urban Design^*
Growth Management Policy
Transportation
Parks & Recreation
Public Facilities & Services
Natural & Historic Resources
Housing
Economic Development
Implementation -- From Plan to Reality

^* This is the 1996 Growth Management Plan

The 1997 Implementation Program

Additionally, staff provided a suggested implementation program that was refined and endorsed by Town Council. Addressing over 20 immediate, near-term, and longer term actions, a set of future tasks was outlined. The chart on the next page illustrates the proposed implementation program that was presented at the retreat session.

1997 Comprehensive Plan Implementation Tasks

Since 1997, staff has been working to carry out the higher priority items in this adopted work program. Many of the identified Phase 1 and Phase 2 action items have been completed or are currently under way. The table below illustrates the current status of each item:

RECOMMENDATION 1: The Growth Management Element of the Comprehensive Plan

In staff’s opinion, the Town has been making very good progress in implementing the comprehensive planning program as designed in early 1997. Clearly, the policy direction of the Town has shifted since then to elevate the issue of growth management to a higher priority position not anticipated two years ago. Since a new course of action is being defined, it is necessary to revisit the comprehensive planning program.

As staff wrote in the 1997 retreat report, "... growth management policy ... is concerned with the issues of the timing of development and the coordination of development with the provision and capacity of public services. Growth management policy is also concerned with the public costs of development, and the balancing of development fees and exactions with public costs. Th(e) Growth Management Policy Element of the Comprehensive Plan will examine such issues, and will identify goals, objectives, strategies, and proposals to address them." Thus, staff would offer the Growth Management Element of the Comprehensive Plan as the vehicle for addressing this major policy issue.

The following is a proposal to: (1) prepare a Growth Management Element, (2) develop a computerized growth management system, and (3) provide an approach to regional management of growth issues. The overall goal of this effort is to develop a comprehensive set of growth management systems, plans, policies, and ordinances to ensure that public infrastructure and services, such as roads, parks, and utilities, are either already in place or programmed for installation as new development occurs.

The Growth Management Element: Issues and Approach

The Growth Management Element of the Comprehensive Plan is foreseen as the policy document which sets forth the Town’s long-term goals and objectives relating to growth and development. It will have to mesh with other plan elements and address issues such as the overall amount or rate of growth, timing of infrastructure provision, and service levels. Extensive discussion among citizens, policy makers, staff, and service providers will need to take place.

Considering the complex and volatile nature of this subject, development of this element will be an extremely complicated process. Staff suggests the following approach be considered:

• Advisory Committee. We would recommend formation of a 10 to 12 member advisory committee to enable early and continuous involvement of various community interests in the process.
• Expertise. We would also recommend that a consulting firm(s) with national experience in this subject area be hired to facilitate this effort. Since we are currently working with Duncan Associates and Clarion Associates on other related projects, we suggest that those firms be teamed together for this effort.
• Cost. The estimated cost to hire consultants has yet to be determined. Staff should be able to provide an estimate at the November 12, 1998 Town Council meeting.
• Timeframe. This work task will take a minimum of six (6) months to complete. This issue will also addressed at the Council meeting.

RECOMMENDATION 2: Development Impact Analysis Model

As we prepare the Growth Management Element, staff recommends that the Town also pursue immediate development of an integrated, computerized system for evaluating growth and development and the provision of adequate infrastructure. We envision creation of a Town-wide simulation system which could be used to assess development suitability of geographic areas based upon the availability of infrastructure and services. In effect, the ability to accommodate new development would be based upon an analysis of the ability of existing and/or planned improvements to support such development.

Similar to the technique of suitability mapping of the natural environment, which overlays information on an individual site’s development potential due to limitations imposed by slopes or flood hazards, this system would generate suitability maps for geographic areas of the Town based on infrastructure or public services such as school capacity or park facilities. It would include data analysis and mapping capabilities, and will be a valuable tool in the decision-making process.

Additionally, the system could also be used to assess the capability of geographic areas to support new development as individual projects are proposed. The details of a new project could be added to the system to gauge future impacts.

A more-detailed description of the model, a preliminary step-by-step process for building it, and some of the issues that need to be addressed is provided below.

Description:

• Unit of Geography. Utilize TAZs (transportation analysis zones) as the unit of geography for analysis. There are approximately 160 TAZs that cover the Town of Cary. The CAMPO (Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization) regional transportation model, which is nearly complete, has defined the TAZ structure for the entire metropolitan region and already includes socioeconomic data such as housing and employment. Use of TAZs will help ensure integration with regional analysis tools.
• Information Included. Public infrastructure and service data at the TAZ level would include information on:

• Schools
• Transportation/Roads
• Parks
• Utilities (water & sewer)
• Public safety (police & fire protection)

• Level of Detail. Much of the system’s information will need to be generalized by analysis zone since this system would not include specific data on particular features. For instance, inclusion of detailed information on traffic levels at each street intersection is not anticipated. Instead, a zone’s overall transportation capacity would be determined and added to the database. Obviously, this will require subjective determinations, but can be aided with guidelines and criteria for making such decisions.
• Geographic Information System. Obviously, the information which this system will analyze and represent is based upon mapped geographic information. The Town’s existing GIS system will be used as the base analytic tool to perform this work. Additional hardware & software may be needed to perform the desired level of analysis.

Preliminary Steps/Process:

• Step 1: Data Collection. Data relating to each infrastructure or service will need to be collected by TAZ. This will be a major effort, especially the task of translating information collected at different geographic units to TAZ’s.
• Step 2: Performance Criteria. The overall quality of a particular service or infrastructure component would be assigned a value or rating using an agreed-upon scale. This is a policy issue requiring Town Council involvement and agreement.
• Step 3: Weighting. Weighting of system components could be included, recognizing that some items are more critical than others. This is also a policy issue that will need discussion.
• Step 4: Base-year Calibration. Calibrate the system for the base year. Once the data are collected for each feature, an evaluation of the current condition of the Town would be generated. Each individual component can be mapped and a composite map of all infrastructure or service items, TAZ by TAZ, can be developed. This would show areas of the Town where future development can be accommodated. Alternatively, if deficiencies exist and development potential is limited by expected infrastructure improvements, the system could help illustrate where future capital improvements or service expansions will be needed if a decision to accommodate growth in an area is made.
• Step 5: Project Future Land Use. Utilize the adopted future land use map from the Growth Management Plan to project future land use by TAZ. Revisit the land use recommendations, if necessary, to determine the plan’s validity/viability.
• Step 6: Project Planned Improvements. Project the availability of services over time. That is, projected improvements in or affecting a TAZ would be added to the system database for the anticipated year of construction or availability. For example, the opening of a new middle school in the year 2001 or completion of a new roadway segment by 2002 would need to be reflected in the system for affected TAZs. Year-by-year, each system component could be projected and mapped to illustrate areas of deficiency or surplus capacity. This would aid with long-range growth decisions and future capital improvement or service expansions.
• Step 8: Evaluation. Compare and assess the availability of infrastructure/services to support the projected future land use scenario. Rate the capability of each TAZ to handle planned growth using coded map indicators (e.g., High, Medium, Low or Green, Yellow, Red) which visually illustrate the results.

Other Considerations:

• Expertise. For this part of the program, staff also recommends that Clarion Associates and Duncan Associates be hired to assist with building this computerized system. They may also add other consulting firms with specialized capabilities to the team.
• Cost. The estimated cost has yet to be determined and will take more time to develop.
• Timeframe. We believe that an early deliverable can be produced at the same time as the policy recommendations of the Growth Management Element. However, this complete work task will take several months to finish and will need more discussion with consultants before a timeframe can be offered.

RECOMMENDATION 3: Regional/Intergovernmental Coordination

Throughout the discussion of the subject of growth management, it has been recognized that Cary does not exist in a vacuum. Infrastructure and services of concern to the citizens of Cary and its elected officials are not limited to those provided solely by the Town. For example, there is keen interest in addressing the adequacy of roads and schools, infrastructure developed by the State of North Carolina and Wake County, respectively.

Traffic from nearby towns, such as Apex and Holly Springs, traverses state roads through Cary which lead to major employment centers like the Research Triangle Park (RTP), with its 40,000 jobs. The Wake County Board of Education builds the facilities and assigns school children from Raleigh, unincorporated Wake County, Apex, and Morrisville to schools located in the Cary area from attendance areas which overlap all political boundaries. The Cary-Apex water plant provides water to residents and workers in those two municipalities as well as those in Morrisville, the Raleigh-Durham Airport, RTP, and others. County park facilities, such as Crabtree Lake Park, offer recreational opportunities to area residents.

There are some regional planning activities already under way in Southwestern Wake County. All municipalities are members of the Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO) for transportation planning purposes. Wake County has also sponsored regional land use planning efforts and a countywide water & sewer study has been initiated.

Problem Approach: Political Sensitivity

Efforts to manage growth effectively will require a coordinated effort among jurisdictions and at all levels of government - municipal, county, and state. In order to deal with this situation, staff recommends that an extremely sensitive approached be taken. We would expect other smaller communities in the region to be quite skeptical of any proposal from the Town of Cary to adopt ordinances or other regulations that are designed to slow or stop growth dramatically. They have seen Cary benefit from growth over the past 20 years and are now waiting for their turn at the "wheel of fortune." We anticipate that a strong case will have to be built to answer the question "What’s in it for me?"

To that end, we suggest that any proposed approach should capitalize upon the following points:

• Illustrate that that we are constrained geographically/geopolitically (Jordan Lake, RDU, Umstead State Park, and Raleigh provide identifiable limits) and that there are a limited number of players that will need to be involved (in other words, this is "doable")
• Prove that a reasonable amount of growth will still be accommodated
• Show what can be learned from Cary’s political experience (Council seats may depend upon how well elected officials deal with growth issues)
• Build on common frustrations (e.g., schools, roads)
• Show that everyone contributes to the problems and therefore has a stake in the solutions
• Regional action will achieve more than individual action and we will be more successful if we attack these problems along a politically united front
• We already have some experience in working at a regional level

RECOMMENDATION 4: Associated Changes

In addition to the recommendation to proceed with continued development of Cary’s Comprehensive Plan with the inclusion of the Growth Management Element, staff suggests that the following actions be taken:

• Officially rename the existing Growth Management Plan document as the Land Use Element of the Comprehensive Plan to accurately reflect the 1996 plan status
• Ensure that other identified components of the Comprehensive Plan (e.g., Parks, Greenways & Bikeways Master Plan; Transportation Plan) are formatted and published as elements of the plan